Fire Ecology volume 16 , Article number: 4 Cite this article. Metrics details. Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public.
This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dry conditions, and such conditions will likely occur with increasing frequency in a warming climate.
According to projections based on historical records, current trends, and simulation modeling, protracted warmer and drier conditions will drive lower fuel moisture and longer fire seasons in the future, likely increasing the frequency and extent of fires compared to the twentieth century. Interactions between fire and other disturbances, such as drought and insect outbreaks, are likely to be the primary drivers of ecosystem change in a warming climate.
Reburns are also likely to occur more frequently with warming and drought, with potential effects on tree regeneration and species composition. Hotter, drier sites may be particularly at risk for regeneration failures. Resource managers will likely be unable to affect the total area burned by fire, as this trend is driven strongly by climate.
However, fuel treatments, when implemented in a spatially strategic manner, can help to decrease fire intensity and severity and improve forest resilience to fire, insects, and drought. Where fuel treatments are less effective wetter, high-elevation, and coastal forests , managers may consider implementing fuel breaks around high-value resources.
