You have full access to this open access article. An age-structured transmission dynamic model was developed based on key local data to evaluate economic consequences, including cost and health outcome in terms of life-years LYs saved. We considered COVID vaccines with different profiles and different vaccination strategies such as vaccinating elderly age groups over 65s or high-incidence groups, i.
Analyses employed a societal perspective in a 1-year time horizon using a cost-effectiveness threshold of , THB per LY saved. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to identify and characterize uncertainty in the model. COVID vaccines that block infection combined with social distancing were cost-saving regardless of the target population compared to social distancing alone with no vaccination.
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For vaccines that block infection, the preferred cost-effective strategy was to vaccinate the high incidence group. Meanwhile, COVID vaccines that reduces severity including hospitalization and mortality were cost-effective when the elderly were vaccinated, while vaccinating the high-incidence group was not cost-effective with this vaccine type.
Regardless of vaccine type, higher vaccination coverage, higher efficacy, and longer protection duration were always preferred. More so, vaccination with social distancing measures was always preferred to strategies without social distancing. Quarantine-related costs were a major cost component affecting the cost-effectiveness of COVID vaccines. COVID vaccines are good value for money even in a relatively low-incidence and low-mortality setting such as Thailand, if the appropriate groups are vaccinated.
The preferred vaccination strategies depend on the type of vaccine efficacy. Social distancing measures should accompany a vaccination strategy. The COVID pandemic will not end until the global roll-out of vaccines is fully realized and when people from all corners of the world are directly or indirectly protected against the virus.
