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The year-old provided invaluable material and political support for Russian ally President Vladimir Putin in his war on Ukraine, even offering Belarus as a launchpad for the doomed Russian drive towards Kyiv in the early stages of the full-scale invasion. Since then, Russian forces have used Belarusian territory to launch ballistic missiles into Ukraine. Belarus houses bases at which Russian troops train for battle and hospitals where they recover.
Minsk even now hosts Russian nuclear warheads and Lukashenko brokered the short-lived settlement between the Kremlin and Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin after the latter's ill-fated mutiny.
As the war in Ukraine escalated and the enmity between Moscow and its Western rivals deepened, Lukashenko's apparent hesitance to fully commit to the conflict seems to have bought him some level of freedom from retaliation.
But with Moscow's drone and missile barrages into Ukraine growing in scale and regularity, Belarusian opposition groups say the danger to their country is increasing. The Belarusian Hajun Project -- an open-source intelligence group banned as an "extremist" organization by Minsk -- said a record-high total of drones entered Belarus during November. At least three were shot down by Belarusian air defenses, it added. One Russian attack in late November saw a record 38 strike drones cross into Belarus, the group said.
ABC News could not independently verify the drone flights. Russian drones were first reported over Belarus in mid-July, their appearance then relatively sporadic. In October, the Hajun Project said it tracked a total of 49 Russian drones flying into Belarusian airspace across the month. The monthly total trebled by the end of November. At least one drone landed and exploded in the southeastern Gomel Oblast, according to Ukrainian and opposition Belarusian media reports.