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Armenia and Azerbaijan, historic rivals that have fought several wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, are finally moving toward a peace settlement.
Armenia lost much of its leverage last September when Azerbaijan regained full control of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region β a historically contested enclave that the two countries repeatedly fought over.
Not to mention, the government in Armenia is already facing domestic pushback over this new border deal. Along these lines, getting a final peace deal across the finish line and making sure it sticks will likely require the help of a third party. But in a break from the past, it seems that Russia is less likely to play this role.
Declining Russian influence For years, Armenia, a former Soviet republic, looked to Russia as a key partner. But Armenia felt abandoned by Moscow as it did little to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia is also unlikely to stand on the sidelines if it sees Western adversaries garnering closer ties in its historic neighborhood. And I think it's an important one for them to have to continue to stay engaged with.
