Tehran for Harold Nelson. Only year ago we saw anti-Baghdad pact anti-western riots here. March 1, Glubb Pasha was dismissed and British lost any influence over events in Jordan. Since then there is evidence of changes and shifts which may be turned to our use. In Jordan changes appear caused principally by concern over rapid rise leftist influence both within and without government; stand of UN and US over Suez; substitution of Arab for British aid army; British willingness terminate treaty on friendly basis; and suspicion on part Kings Hussein and Ibn Saud of both Egypt and Syria.
In many respects present is moment of pause and appears as the morning after the emotional display. Hussein has come out with strong anti-Communist stand employing Arab traditions and Islam as vehicle. By comment favorable to Eisenhower doctrine he has publicly shown himself on our side. He is now legitimate target for regime in Syria and Communists and Bathiyiin in Jordan. He cannot expect genuine support from Nabulsi Government.
Prime Minister shows no disposition to dispense with Communist and Bathiyiin supporters in government, who, if put in opposition could help out extremist elements.
Balance of power at moment is army which generally assumed loyal to Kingβ¦. Time of decision whether Jordan to continue relatively unfettered independent entity, or go way of Syria is near. First phase in that decision will be Cairo meeting chiefs of state with Saud on return from US probably February If Saud wins then Hussein may be expected to be bolstered to point where US assistance to Jordan could assure favorable posture.
If Nasser wins then Hussein will be [Page 85] in weak position and while US assistance might still be worth the gamble the chances of success would be greatly diminished. Respecting such assistance, development of Eisenhower doctrine and trip Ambassador Richards certain facts and recommendations are given below. Up to present I have been opposed to any more aid to Jordan on grounds that they could not make good use of it nor would it gain us any particular credit.
